Monthly sales rising from THB3 million to THB3.6 million look like good news for a business owner. But if stock must be purchased first and customers receive 60 days' credit, the company may need well over a million baht in additional working capital before collecting the new revenue.
Export growth can therefore make the headlines while SME owners postpone machinery purchases, negotiate with suppliers or chase customer payments. One measure records activity across the economy. The other depends on when money enters and leaves a particular company's bank account.
Data checked through 27 October 2026 help explain why both deserve attention. National figures alone cannot diagnose an individual business's liquidity. Nor does the national trade deficit establish the cause of a particular SME's cash shortage. That requires examining its costs, credit terms and actual receipts and payments.
Exports and the trade deficit can grow together
On 26 October 2026, the Ministry of Commerce reported September goods exports of US$38,438.9 million, up 24.0% from a year earlier. Imports were US$44,295.6 million, up 50.4%, producing a monthly trade deficit of US$5,856.6 million. The deficit for the first nine months reached US$43,693.9 million. Ministry of Commerce, September 2026 trade figures.
These export figures measure value in US dollars. They are not export-volume growth or GDP growth. The ministry identifies electronics as a principal driver, while individual product groups show different results. The overall 24.0% increase should therefore not be used as a proxy for SME sales across every industry.
A goods trade deficit means import value exceeds export value in that dataset. Understanding its business implications requires asking what is being imported, who is buying it and how it will be used. Machinery for future production, inputs for exports and finished goods competing with domestic manufacturers have different consequences.
A customs-based trade deficit should not be read as the country's accounting loss or an SME's loss. It is also insufficient to establish the current-account balance, which includes services and other income flows. For a company importing materials, the more immediate questions concern landed purchase costs, payment dates and the wait before customers pay.
Overall credit growth does not mean more SME credit
The Bank of Thailand's second-quarter 2026 banking review reported 2.0% year-on-year growth in commercial banks' consolidated lending, driven mainly by large businesses. SME lending continued to contract amid elevated credit risk. The review also noted higher working-capital demand among large businesses as energy and material costs increased. Bank of Thailand, 18 August 2026.
This shows different conditions across borrower groups. It is not a loan-rejection rate, nor does it mean every SME is unable to borrow. Outstanding credit can change because of borrowing demand, repayments and lenders' assessment of risk, among other factors.
For management, the practical issue is how much growth existing funding can support if sales rise before an additional credit facility is certain.
A 20% sales increase can require THB1.41 million more working capital
Consider a hypothetical wholesaler whose sales are entirely on credit. These figures illustrate a mechanism. They are not Thai SME averages or Enersys customer results.
Assume a 30-day month, monthly sales of THB3 million and cost of goods sold of THB2.1 million. Customers pay in 60 days on average, inventory is held for 45 days and suppliers are paid in 30 days. For simplicity, purchases and sales are steady, purchases equal cost of goods sold in the steady state, and the example excludes VAT, seasonality and obsolete stock.
Receivables equal daily sales multiplied by collection days. Inventory equals daily cost of goods sold multiplied by inventory days. Payables equal daily purchases multiplied by supplier payment days. Receivables plus inventory less payables then show the money tied up in the trade cycle.
| Item |
Existing sales level |
Sales up 20%, with the same number of days |
| Monthly sales |
THB3,000,000 |
THB3,600,000 |
| Monthly cost of goods sold |
THB2,100,000 |
THB2,520,000 |
| Trade receivables |
THB6,000,000 |
THB7,200,000 |
| Inventory |
THB3,150,000 |
THB3,780,000 |
| Trade payables |
(THB2,100,000) |
(THB2,520,000) |
| Net trade working capital |
THB7,050,000 |
THB8,460,000 |
The company needs to support another THB1,410,000 tied up in the cycle. This happens even though the gross-margin percentage is unchanged and monthly gross profit rises from THB900,000 to THB1,080,000. The additional working capital is a balance to finance during the transition to the higher sales level. It is not a new THB1.41 million expense every month.
If sales remain at THB3.6 million but average collection slips from 60 to 75 days, receivables rise by a further THB1.8 million: THB120,000 in daily sales outstanding for another 15 days. Net trade working capital reaches THB10.26 million, THB3.21 million above the original baseline. Payroll, interest, tax and capital expenditure are still outside the calculation.
Slower collection can therefore matter more than a sales-growth percentage suggests. Discounts used to close sales can make the pressure worse if they reduce contribution per order without shortening the wait for payment.
Track the days and the baht together
The cash conversion cycle describes the period a business must finance between buying stock and collecting sales proceeds. It adds inventory days to customer collection days, then subtracts supplier payment days. In the example, 45 + 60 - 30 gives a 75-day cycle.
That does not mean every company needs cash equal to exactly 75 days of expenditure. Receivables use selling prices, while inventory and payables use costs. Payroll, taxes and investment also have their own payment schedules. A cash plan needs actual expected receipts and payment dates as well.
Some businesses collect deposits, some are seasonal and some obtain long supplier credit because of their bargaining position. Decisions to reduce stockholding days or extend supplier payments need to consider delivery reliability, discounts and supplier relationships. Paying later than agreed without negotiating may simply pass the problem to a smaller business.
Start the cash plan with invoices likely to be collected
An owner could begin with a weekly cash forecast covering the next 13 weeks. This is a proposed working format to test, not a requirement, and should be adapted to the business cycle.
Add opening cash to expected collections based on actual invoices and terms, then deduct payments due each week. Keep the contractual due date separate from the date the customer is expected to pay. An unconfirmed payment, an incomplete billing file or a disputed invoice should not be treated as certain cash.
Then delay a major customer's receipt by two weeks, or increase a key input cost to reflect a scenario the business is concerned about. Identify which week cash falls below the company's acceptable minimum. This helps determine when to negotiate a deposit, stage deliveries, reduce purchases of slow-moving stock or seek a facility before the shortfall arrives.
Weekly information worth reviewing includes overdue receivables and their causes, deliveries not yet ready for invoicing, aging inventory, supplier payments and new sales after variable costs. Totals alone may hide a large customer delaying payment or a small group of products tying up disproportionate funds.
A system should make the shortfall visible early enough to act
Viewing sales, inventory and accounting information together helps establish whether goods have shipped, when the invoice was issued and which week collection is expected. ERP may connect those steps, but people still need to own data entry, billing and collection. Complete records do not make every customer pay on time.
For a discussion with Enersys, bring receivables, inventory and payables reports alongside the current cash plan. Choose a measurable problem: the delay between delivery and billing, for example, or the stock categories that hold funds longest. Changes to the system should be tied to verifiable data and named responsibilities. Establish where money is tied up before choosing what to buy.
When the next large order arrives, answer these questions before accepting it: what must be paid first, when will the customer pay, and if that payment slips by two weeks, where will the cash for that week come from?
For connected sales, stock and accounting records, see Enersys Odoo services. The article on what ERP figures mean before they drive a decision explains why shared definitions matter alongside system connections.
